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Kusukela ku-Q3 2025, imakethe yekhebula le-fiber optic yomhlaba wonke iphumile eminyakeni eminingi yamazinga entengo aphansi, yethula ukunyuka kwentengo okuqinile nokuhlelekile okungabonisi zimpawu zokuncipha. Njengoba kuhluka ekulungisweni kwentengo okufanayo emijikelezweni yangaphambilini, lo mjikelezo wokunyuka kwentengo uveza ukungafani okukhulu kuzo zonke izigaba zomkhiqizo, iziteshi zokuthenga kanye nezimakethe zesifunda, okuletha izinselele ezibalulekile zokusebenza kanye nokuthenga kumakhasimende ezimboni,isikhungo sedathaonjiniyela,ucingoabaqhubi kanye nabahlanganisi bezixazululo zomhlaba wonke. Sisekelwa idatha yemboni eqinisekisiwe kanye nobuhlakani beketanga lokuhlinzeka, lesi sihloko sihlaziya abashayeli abayinhloko, ukunyakaza kwamanani okubalwa kanye nezindlela zemakethe zesikhathi eside zalolu shintsho olubalulekile embonini.
Ngokusho kwedatha yokuthengwa kwe-CRU kanye ne-telecom yasekhaya, i-flagship G.652.D single-mode fiber, okuyiyona nto eyinhloko yokusetshenziswa kwe-telecom kanye ne-FTTH, iqophe ukwenyuka kwentengo okungaphezu kuka-30% kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2025. Kusukela ngasekupheleni kukaDisemba 2025 kuya maphakathi noJanuwari 2026, intengo ye-fiber ekhululekile ye-G.652.D ikhuphuke kakhulu isuka cishe kuma-yuan angu-20 ngekhilomitha ngalinye le-fiber yaya kuma-yuan angaphezu kuka-35 ngekhilomitha ngalinye le-fiber, kanti ezinye izingcaphuno zesifunda zidlula ama-yuan angu-44 ngekhilomitha ngalinye le-fiber. Izingxenye ze-fiber eziphezulu nezikhethekile zibone izinzuzo ezinkulu nakakhulu: G.657. I-fiber engazweli ukugoba, esetshenziswa kabanzi ezikhungweni zedatha kanye nezinhlelo zokuxhumana zama-drone asezingeni lezempi, ikhuphuke isuka kuma-yuan angaphezu kuka-30 ngekhilomitha ngalinye le-fiber yaya kuma-yuan angaphezu kuka-50 ngekhilomitha ngalinye le-fiber ngenyanga eyodwa. I-G.654.E i-fiber yokudonsa isikhathi eside elahlekelwa kakhulu, i-OM5 high-bandwidth multi-mode fiber kanye ne-hollow-core fiber ine-premium engu-20% kuya ku-30%, kanyei-fibre engenaluthoAmanani afinyelela cishe izikhathi eziyi-1000 kune-fiber ejwayelekile ye-G.652.D. Okwamanje, amanani okuthenga asekelwe kubaphathi, isikhathi eside eyisilinganiso sokuzinza, aphinde akhuphuka kakhulu—ukuthengwa kwekhebula le-China Tower lika-2025-2026 GYTA G.652.D elinama-core angu-24 kubeke isisekelo sama-yuan angu-1197 ngekhilomitha ngalinye, kuyilapho ukuthengwa kwesifunda sase-China Telecom kukhuphuke ngo-49%, okuqinisekisa ukululama okubanzi emakethe.
Ukwanda okukhulu kwengqalasizinda yokubala ye-AI kumi njengesisusa esiyinhloko sokushintsha ukuguquguquka kwesidingo sokunikezwa kwe-fiber optic emhlabeni jikelele. Ukuhlaziywa kwemboni kuqinisekisa ukuthi izikhungo zedatha ze-hyperscale ezilungiselelwe i-AI zisebenzisa ingqalasizinda ye-fiber optic ephindwe ka-5 kuya ku-10 kunezikhungo zamafu ezivamile, lapho i-Data Center Interconnect (DCI) kanye ne-intra-data centre high-speed interconnect zivela njengezigaba zesidingo ezikhula ngokushesha. Idatha ye-CRU yembula ukuthi isidingo se-fiber centre centre global sikhuphuke ngo-75.9% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2025, futhi le ngxenye kulindeleke ukuthi ibhekele u-30% wesidingo se-fiber somhlaba wonke ngo-2027, kusukela ku-5% kuphela ngo-2024. Ama-hyperscalers aseNyakatho Melika, ahola ukuqeqeshwa kwemodeli yolimi olukhulu kanye nomjaho wokucabanga, abeke ama-oda amaningi emikhiqizo ye-fiber esebenza kahle, echitha izinqolobane zomhlaba wonke zezintambo ezikhethekile futhi ebangela ukushoda kokunikezwa kwempahla kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani. Okwandisa lokhu, isidingo sefayibha yezinga lezempi esivela ezinhlelweni zokuxhumana zezimoto zasemoyeni ezingenamuntu (i-UAV) sivele njengomshayeli obalulekile oqhubekayo, lapho isidingo sefayibha ye-UAV yaminyaka yonke sifinyelela kumakhilomitha ayizigidi ezingama-50-60 zefayibha ngo-2025, okubalwa cishe u-10% wesidingo somhlaba wonke.
Ngasohlangothini lokuhlinzeka, amandla okukhiqiza angaguquki kanye nemijikelezo ende yokwanda kwe-upstream kudale izithiyo zokuhlinzeka eziqhubekayo, kwandisa ukuqina kwemakethe. I-Optical fiber preform, izinto zokusetshenziswa ezibalulekile ze-upstream, ihlanganisa izinqubo zokukhiqiza eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ezinomjikelezo wokukhulisa ojwayelekile wezinyanga eziyi-18 kuya kwezingama-24, okusho ukuthi amandla amasha aqalwe ngo-2025 ngeke afinyelele ekuthengisweni kuze kube ngu-2026 noma ngo-2027. Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili emhlabeni wonke kubandakanya i-Yangtze Optical Fiber and Cable, i-Hengtong Optic-Electric kanye ne-FiberHome bashintshe ngokuhlelekile amandla okukhiqiza e-preform kanye ne-fiber alinganiselwe emigqeni ye-fiber ekhethekile ye-margin ephezulu, kunciphisa ngqo umkhiqizo we-fiber ejwayelekile ye-G.652.D yezinhlelo zokusebenza ze-telecom kanye ne-FTTx. Lokhu kuguqulwa kwamandla kukhulise ukushoda kokunikezwa emakethe evamile, noma ngabe amandla okukhiqiza embonini ahlala eqinile ngokombono. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isidingo esinamandla saphesheya kwezilwandle esivela eNyakatho Melika, eMpumalanga Ephakathi naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia siholele ekukhuleni okukhulu kweShayina.ikhebula le-fiber opticukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, okunciphisa kakhulu ukunikezwa kwempahla yasekhaya futhi kukhuphula amanani angaphandle kwefektri ama-oda amaningi.
Ukuvumelana kwemboni, okusekelwa ukumodelwa kokufunwa kokunikezwa, kubonisa ukuthi lokhu kunyuka kwentengo kuzoqhubeka kuze kube ngu-2026, kanti umjikelezo ogcwele wenkunzi uthatha iminyaka emi-2 kuya kwemi-3. Isidingo sefayibha yomhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi sidlule amakhilomitha ayizigidi ezingu-800 zefayibha ngo-2027, kuyilapho ukuphakelwa okusebenzayo kuzohlala isikhathi eside ngenxa yokulahlekelwa ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqiza okuvela ekuguqulweni komthamo—imigqa yokukhiqiza ifayibha ekhethekile isebenza kahle ngo-30% kunemigqa ejwayelekile yefayibha, okwandisa igebe langempela lokuphakelwa ngale kwamazinga abikezelwe angu-5%. Kubathengi bamabhizinisi, amasu okunciphisa ubungozi abalulekile: ukuqinisekisa izivumelwano zohlaka lwesikhathi eside nabakhiqizi abafanelekile abahlanganisiwe ngaphambi kokwakhiwa, ukuhlukanisa imithombo yokuphakelwa kubathengisi basekhaya nabaphesheya kwezilwandle, kanye nokubeka phambili ukuhlela isitokwe sefa yefayibha ye-G.652.D, G.657.A kanye ne-OM5 ebaluleke kakhulu kungavimbela ukuguquguquka kwezindleko. Abaqhubi bezokuxhumana abahlela ukuthengwa okuphakathi kanye nabathuthukisi bezikhungo zedatha abenza izakhiwo ezinkulu kufanele bahlanganise ukubikezela kwentengo yesikhathi eside ekuhleleni isabelomali sephrojekthi kanye nohlaka lokuphathwa kwengozi yochungechunge lokuphakelwa.
Njengoba imakethe yekhebula le-fiber optic yomhlaba wonke ingena esigabeni sokukhula esiguqukayo, esiqhutshwa yisidingo, ababambiqhaza bezimboni kumele bashintshe kusukela ekulawulweni kwezindleko ezisabelayo baye ekuhleleni okusebenzayo. Ngokuqapha ukukhishwa kwamandla e-preform, ukulandelela ukuguquguquka kwesidingo okuqhutshwa yi-AI kanye nokusebenzisa ukwenziwa ngcono kwe-supply chain okuqhutshwa yidatha, amabhizinisi angazulazula ekuguqukeni kwemakethe futhi aqinisekise izinzuzo zokuncintisana ohlelweni lokuxhumana lwe-optical lomhlaba olushintshayo.
